A New Calculation on the Fly to the NASA UAP Study

This morning, the weather forecast in Boston called for rain. Gladly, the rain did not start early, so I remained dry while jogging an hour before sunrise. I left home to Logan airport in Boston on my way to meet the NASA Study Committee on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) in Washington DC.

The reason I was invited to DC today is that over the past five years I was intrigued by the unusual properties of the first three interstellar objects ever identified by humans. I discovered the first two with my student, Amir Siraj. These are the two interstellar meteors, IM1 and IM2 (documented by the US government in January 2014 and March 2017), which are rarer than one part in ten thousand in their material strength relative to solar system meteors. The third was the near-Earth object, `Oumuamua, which had a thin flat shape and was pushed away from the Sun without showing a cometary tail. My plan was to describe the Galileo Project, which aims to figure out the nature of unusual interstellar objects as well as UAP, allowing for the possibility that they were manufactured by extraterrestrial technological civilizations.

The entire collection of unusual objects is probably a mixed bag. If only one of them ends up being of extraterrestrial technological origin, it would not necessarily vindicate the numerous reports on most UAP being extraterrestrial. The huge number of reports could have mundane explanations, in the form of human-made crafts or natural objects. The key in identifying an unusual signal lies in the data quality that makes it an outlier relative to the noise from familiar occurrences in the same environment. This was the case in the astronomical data on the first three interstellar objects. But it is not necessarily the case in many UAP reports, including a recent one from Ukraine which I discussed in a recent paper. The NASA Study will examine unclassified data on UAP in an attempt to separate the signal from the noise and advise NASA whether to fund future UAP research, such as the scientific program already pursued by the Galileo Project. The instruments designed by the Galileo Project more than a year ago are by now collecting new high-quality data.

As the airplane was ready to lift off, the stewardess asked me to store my laptop in the overhead bin, and so I was left with no other choice but to close my eyes and think. I reasoned to myself that in order to improve the UAP signal quality, we need new data. Within a year, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile will survey the entire southern sky every four days with its 3.2 billion-pixel camera (a thousand times more pixels than offered by a cell phone camera). Its Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is likely to discover many new interstellar objects. But exactly how many?

In my head I calculated that the discovery rate of IM1 and IM2 in the CNEOS catalog imply that meter-size interstellar objects collide with Earth roughly once per decade. `Oumuamua was a hundred times bigger than these objects and was discovered through its reflection of sunlight by the smaller Pan-STARRS telescope at a distance that is 6,000 Earth radii. This implies that a meter-size object would be detectable by LSST out to a distance of 60 Earth radii, the Earth-Moon separation. The cross-sectional area of that “fishing net” is a few thousand times bigger than the area offered by the Earth’s atmosphere — which is our standard meteor detector. This implies that LSST would detect a new meter-size interstellar object every week out to the distance of the Moon, because LSST scans half of the full sky every four days.

If most meter-size interstellar objects are CubeSats sent by extraterrestrial civilizations to probe Earth, we could find one of them every week with LSST. As a result, our lack of knowledge regarding the nature and potential origin of unusual interstellar objects like IM1 and IM2 may change dramatically in the coming years. The dust raised by skeptics will settle down, and experts who studied rocks from the Solar system may be forced to admit that some interstellar objects are unusual.

As soon as the airplane lifted off, the rain started pouring. Last night I was informed during an interview on NewsNation about new UAP reports by civilians or pilots. The steady pounding of fresh rain drops on the airplane windows reminded me of these fresh reports.

By the time my laptop was available for me to type this essay, I was done with the numbers in my head. I mentioned the “on the fly” results at the beginning of my presentation to the NASA Study. The committee members, including the astronaut Scott Kelly, asked excellent questions. We agreed that we all look forward to an exciting future ahead, guided by high-quality scientific evidence.

By the time I returned to Boston, the rain subsided and the sky was overcast with clouds. Here’s hoping the that clouds of uncertainty on the nature of UAP will soon disappear, so that we will understand what lies in the skies by using our new 3.2 billion-pixel camera to search for meter-size packages from interstellar space every week. There is no better way to start our week than a love letter in our mailbox.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Avi Loeb is the head of the Galileo Project, founding director of Harvard University’s — Black Hole Initiative, director of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and the former chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University (2011–2020). He chairs the advisory board for the Breakthrough Starshot project, and is a former member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and a former chair of the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Academies. He is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth” and a co-author of the textbook “Life in the Cosmos”, both published in 2021.

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Avi Loeb

Avi Loeb

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Avi Loeb is the Frank B. Baird Jr Professor of Science and Institute director at Harvard University and is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial”.